May 1 crude oil fell, to a certain extent, bearish polyester raw materials, superposition the traditional season of textile "gold three silver four" in the past, the terminal weaving market gradually weakened, market expectations began to weaken, PTA, polyester filament gradually into the overhaul cycle, polyester raw materials in the future.

PTA maintenance: Enter the destocking cycle

In April 2024, the PTA supply and demand side showed a destocking pattern. Yizheng and Taihua plant put into operation in the month, and the production capacity increased; However, due to the maintenance of PTA devices in some factories, the output is expected to be 5.64 million tons, which is lower than last month; Operating rate maintained 76.60%; Inventory accumulated to 2.533,000 tons; Import and export data were little changed; Apparent consumption decreased from the previous month; The theoretical processing fee of enterprises maintained 311 yuan/ton, which fell slightly from the previous month.

During the May Day, the PTA reduction and shutdown device continued, and the capacity utilization rate was stable at 81.29%. Considering the tight supply at the near end and the planned maintenance of multiple sets of devices after the holiday, the market has transitioned from a volatile market to a benign expectation.

In early May, Hengli Dahua 1#, Honggang Petrochemical 2#, Dongying Weilian, Jiaxing Petrochemical 2#, a total of 9.4 million tons of equipment is scheduled to be overhauled, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be nearly 10 percentage points lower than before the holiday to 71%, and the daily storage will be more than 15,000 tons. Supply is tight in some areas.

For the terminal weaving industry, although the shipment situation is very good this year, but from the perspective of profit, even not as good as the past few years, many enterprises conventional selling prices are basically the last few years of the sale price, the largest shipment of conventional products is basically a small profit, and a large number of did not flow into the consumer market, but was purchased by spot enterprises.

Because there is a large number of spot in the market, cushioning the price impact brought by the supply and demand relationship, even if the market demand increases, the price of conventional grey cloth is difficult to rise sharply in the short term as in the past.

Therefore, at this stage, weaving enterprises are very resistant to high-priced raw materials, raw material prices are easy to fall and difficult to rise, and there is a phenomenon of "no promotion and no replenishment".

Overall, polyester raw materials in the future has strong support on the supply and demand side, but the terminal weaving enterprises even in March and April are difficult to accept the price increase, the market is weak in May, perhaps the acceptance level will be lower, and the future polyester raw materials or continue to shock the trend.

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